Australian Survivor Final 14 Analysis

Australian Survivor 2019: Champions vs Contenders 2 Final 14 Analysis

     It's that time of the year again. Australian Survivor is back, and with the same theme as last year, but a much better premerge. This season's premerge started slow but holy fucking shit what a mess it has all become. So, this post is being made for two reasons:

1) I'm loving this season so much it's inspiring me to write more

2) I love talking about this and this is confusing enough people may want to find some sort of an explanation

So here I am. This post will not be an in-depth look at any of the tribals, but I will give context where it is missing. I will, however, be going in-depth on each and every player remaining, then doing a brief winner likelihood ranking.

New Contenders

The New Contenders are the more "static" tribe, so let us start with them first, and delve into the chaos pit of the New Champions later. The New Contenders seem to be pretty strongly divided among tribal lines, 5-2, with no one wanting to truly flip.

Abbey

     Abbey is sitting quite pretty right now in her tribe. She's in a very tight alliance of 3 with her, Janine, and Pia, has Ross and Simon loyal to the Champion alliance, and has a public enemy in Harry. The beauty about having Harry on the tribe, is that the guy is playing so hard, is playing such a dirty game, that there's no real chance that Simon or Ross would want to flip to save him. He's so much of an obvious boot if they lose another challenge that she has at least one more tribal of safety, and even then Matty doesn't seem to be some social beast either. People have said he's actually a really nice guy and down to earth, but that's not good enough to save him from the Champion majority. 

     

     As for her chances at the merge, they seem to be pretty good. Janine/Pia/Abbey are a trio that seem to be truly loyal. They would be the last people I'd expect to turn on each other to survive another day in the game. If they had their way, they would be the final 3. 

     So what does someone else on the outside do about that? Well, a duo is powerful and needs to be split up, but a trio? Dear Christ that would give you a target the size of Australia. Ross and Simon seem fine with it for now, but that could very well be because it isn't even merge yet.

     Merge hits. Someone decides they need to take action against the three girls. In that case, who must the target be? Well, it seems it would very likely be Janine. Janine has been officially crowned the "Godmother" by everyone's pal Dirty Harry, and so if someone were to go after the trio, they would go after the leader. Janine has found an idol, sold David down the river to Shaun, has thrown challenges to take out Contenders, and to be honest the only people she hasn't worked against at one point have been Ross/Abbey/Pia. With that in mind, it's a pretty safe bet that when people come after her, she should be able to survive a tribal and try to recover from the voting out of Janine.

     Now, all of this could realistically be said about Pia as well, so allow me to say where she differs. It's pretty obvious: challenge strength. The woman is a beast, and could easily dominate merge challenges, especially early on. Remember last year how Lydia was the "Terminator" that had to have Shane come in and lead a rebellion against her John Connor style? Remember how Sharn was an immunity beast? It's not the "horses" of the world like the Shauns, the Mat Rs, etc. It's people like her who you would see just dominate endurance challenges. It could help her out early on, but when Janine goes and people want to target one of the survivors of the Champion Girl Trio, that could very well be the tipping point between her staying and going.

     Pre-Swap as well, she was also in an amazing position. She was at the bottom of a 7 man majority in a tribe of 12, and then flipped into being at the top. She showed herself as someone who wouldn't just be used by some dictator and she showed agency in her game. She showed that she isn't just a member of the Trio, she's a player in her own right, and at the end, that will mean a lot to a jury.

Pia

     Literally most of what I wrote for Abbey applies to Pia, so I'll make this a bit briefer. Pia is in the Champion Girl Trio, and would probably not be a target unless people want a "safe vote".

     So what sets her apart from the other girls in the Trio? Well, she's the "underdog". Out of the three girls, she likely has the best chance at winning at this point, mainly because her story is so damn good. 

     Pia was the Contender in a tribe of Champions. What do I mean? Pia was an actress placed into a tribe of sports athletes and even several people who weren't athletes were extremely athletic as well, while Pia and a few others didn't really fit in. She's not a challenge liability, but when you have AFL legends on your tribe, it takes a bit more than competency to not stand out in a negative light. 

   Exacerbating these issues was the legendary Stephen Bradbury, the man who won because everyone else crashed (literally) and burned (not literally). Stephen had the legendary idea to go "hey there's 7 athletes, let's just stick us together and we get an easy majority!" Well, Pia is not an athlete. So when push came to shove early on, she became an early target, along with Janine and Anastasia. While only one of those three are out right now, it's a pretty safe assumption to say that if Luke/David didn't hop in and flip the game on its head they might not be in the game right now.

    During several instances in the pre-swap, Pia was targeted for being a challenge liability comparatively, but managed to successfully stay in thanks to her alliance, and since then, has pretty much never had her name thrown out. If she makes the end, she has one hell of a story.

Janine

      Janine is in a very strange position. On her swap tribe, she is running the show. She is the leader of the Trio, has Ross and Simon working for her, and has Harry as a clear target so no one should be flipping on her. Realistically, she should be surviving this round of the game and making merge, so let's talk more about that, since the only way anything changes right now is if Dirty Harry scoops out another idol.

     Janine's done a lot that could bite her in the ass. She's thrown challenges, sold David out, and has already been pointed out as a major strategical threat. She doesn't even seem to try to be getting rid of her strategist label, and is instead staying the course. Sure, but, what the hell do you do when at the merge the old contenders want you out because you're a major threat? You have no one to even say "nah I don't think she's that bad" besides the obvious Abbey/Pia. She isn't a major challenge beast, so that could work in her favor, but she's still shooting for an early merge blindside.

     Hell, if she did try to bluff her idol, Dave and Luke would very quickly call her out for that being the real Contender idol that Dave would have given Shaun if he wasn't being a "used car salesman". It could maybe get a bit of paranoia, but in the end it'd fuck with things. Since, again, if Shaun were to ever realize "hey, if Dave never gave me the idol, then who actually found it?" And if someone realized Janine had it, that would mean Dave had to have known about the special idol from Janine, which means she was complicit in the fake idol swap. 

     If Janine were to make the end, she could very easily win. The issue is, she's a major target at the helm of a major, unbreakable, trio. And when you're as confident as she is, even if her idol did work at the merge, it would simply go on her nightstand at Ponderosa, as a direct reminder of her mistakes...

Simon

     Simon is not someone we've seen a lot of, or know his game, at all. He survived the death of the Sports Alliance, so he has to be doing something right. He seems to be a positive force around camp, and a likable dude. None of the OG Champions ever considered "hey what if we just split on Simon, he was on the bottom anyways!" Or, well, at least on screen. Hes acknowledged as a challenge beast, which could come back to haunt him eventually, but who knows when you have people like Shaun running around literally tackling David like a Pro American Football player trying to stop a guy from getting into the end zone. 

      Where would Simon end up? Honestly, who fucking knows at this point! Simon's gotten just as much screentime as a fictional three year old, even from SPV. So, maybe he'll go far? Mid merge? He's not winning, but like what the fuck is he doing? What is his plan? Does he have one? Does he exist? Have we all been deceived by CGSimon? Well, no matter if he is a figment of our imagination or not, he seems to be doing well enough... for now.

Ross

     If there was one pleasant surprise this season, it's Ross. Ross was someone who I don't think people had high expectations for, but oh boy is he just amazing. He's lovable, charming, fucking hilarious (asking Harry for his socks???), and one of the best people on this season. But how is he as a player?

     Ross is actually not that bad. Hell, he's one of the most likely people to win right now! He has it all: 

• He's Lovable
• Shields
• Agency in the game
• No one will be targeting him for a long time
• Hasn't burned anyone

     And the best part about this is: no one seems to know! Ross is just slipping by, everyone else thinking that he's just a fun loving old man here for some peace and quiet. Yes, he does love the island life, but he's still here to win.

     I think the only thing people could truly hold against him at this point is that early on he was quite indecisive, and didn't seem to know what he wanted and who he wanted to go with. Being wishy-washy is never a good thing, and it certainly doesn't make you more favorable in the eyes of a jury. However, it was like, what? The first 3-4 tribals? Your game early on can and should affect you, but it's clear he's gotten into his groove and is ready to surf the waves of the game all the way to the end.

Matty

     No one:

     Absolutely no one:

     Matty: "I'LL EAT THE HORSE AND SPIT HIM OUT LIKE HE'S NOTHING MORE THAN DINNER! WE ARE GOING TO KICK THEIR ASSES! LETS GO"

     ....And that's all we really have from Matty right now. On the OG Contenders tribe, apparently he was just floating around. He was a likable dude, helping out around camp, the general works. He was never going early, and he has managed to fade into the background at the swap, almost like how Stephen won his medal: Casey and Harry keep crashing and he can skate right on by. As for whether or not he'll survive the swap? Well, Harry is definitely going before him, the issue is he could very well be the victim of a split vote if the guy gets another idol. He voted how the OG Champions wanted last time, hopefully getting in good with them, but if they lose two more times, Matty is definitely going to be enjoying his time in the losers lodge. Which is sad, he seems like a genuinely good person on the season, but so does everyone on this season.

     If he were to make the merge, what could he do? Well, he could very well be the merge boot. He's made it quite clear that he wants nothing to do with a possible Champion win at the end, and will do whatever he can to make a Contender win. That's not what you want as a Champion, because then unless you get another champ right next to ya, you're losin his vote by default. So if the merge is at 12, you could bet some decent money his name is goin out there. If he isn't Merge boot, he could make it decently far, but I don't see him winning.

Dirty Harry

     Some players in Survivor are masterclasses on how to play the game. Harry is not that. Harry is a disasterclass in how to play Survivor. He's a walking wreck. If you remember back to Kent's first confessional from AUS 2017, Harry is the dickhead Kent is looking for. 

     What happened to the guy? Well, on the OG Contenders, it's unclear as to who goes next, but at least here, oh lord, his life in this game is melting away faster than the ice cream he scoops every day. He's gone insane at tribal to try and get people to vote him so he could idol out Janine, only for that to blow up in his face. He then tries it again, but Casey goes rogue and doesn't trust him, causing him to idol her out. He made up a fake son against his girlfriend's advice, while having 0 clue what kind of milestones a damn three year old should be at. And now, he is firmly at the bottom, no idol, no hope, no friends, no three year old son.

     So what the fuck does a man like him do at this point? How does a man who only seems to dig his grave deeper and deeper get out of it? How does someone who people are throwing challenges to get rid of stay?

     Honestly, his only, and I mean only chance besides winning/idoling out until merge, is to convince Ross and Simon that the trio needs to be broken up sooner rather than later. For that to happen, he has to pray Andy fully throws the next challenge, a Contender somehow goes, and he can use the argument of "Ok well there's more Champions than Contenders, maybe now is the time for a move?"

     It's a long shot. It truly is. But what else does a man like this even do? Ignored, shunned, people want his clothes? He's dug his own grave, and now he has to be buried in it. Only an act of God can save this man. 

     Side note: he had a really good opportunity for a 5*-2-2 idol play if it wasn't a non elimination twist and I am extremely sad, disappointed, and angry we never got to see how that could have turned out. 

New Champions

Now we get to this shitshow! Hooooooooo boy

John

     John seems to be playing a very stable game. He's good with Daisy, was good with David and Luke, good with Shaun, good with Baden, really only seems to not have much with Andy. Everyone loves the guy, he's sane, has a good head on his shoulders, seems to be doing quite alright. 

     Was his decision to flip on Sammy a good idea? Well, honestly not. If anything, Andy really should have went that tribal. Other than that, he's on everyone's good side strategically. He's easily making the merge. How long would he last at the merge? Hard to say, but I could see him making it far. He's stable, rational, a great guy, and in a solid position, and that's good enough for at least 8th. 

     What could be his downfall? Honestly, I think he might be too lovable. The guy has not pissed anyone off, and likely never will. So, when push comes to shove, and you're on a tribe with a guy who is loved by all of the jury members you burned, is it really a good idea to keep this guy in the game? Plus, he isn't very close with anyone in particular, so if his name were to come up, who would be the one to say "No, let's save John for another day"? Daisy or Shaun could, but they are going to have to be more concerned about each other than for John. Maybe Oscar will vouch for him~

Baden

     Gotta say, I love Baden! For some reason, the smart physicist has gone from being a Champion to A Contender, but this is not a post questioning the producers' logic. 

     Baden was in a rough spot early on. To say he was in danger puts it pretty lightly. Guy almost got voted out, and it took him a bit of time to truly get off the bottom. I don't believe he would go if they lost again, but hey, who knows? 

      On the New Champions tribe, however, he's in a position about as good as John's. He was brought into the flip on Sammy plan by Daisy, was told about the idol being fake by Daisy, seems to be getting along great with Luke, and is in no danger at all. John may be a lock for the merge, but Baden might as well be too. Not only that, but he seems to be in a great spot moving forward. He seems to be quite decent at challenges, and could perhaps win later ones. Meanwhile, no one thinks of him as a challenge threat, they see him as the nerd who wouldn't last a second against Shaun in an arm wrestling contest. 

     The guy is also lovable (ok let's be real this entire cast is but him especially) and he would have a great story at the end too. He could be a lategame boot, he could win, but either way, I think we should all prepare ourselves for Baden to make it quite a long ways. He's not the most active strategically, he isn't the most social, he isn't the most physical, he does exactly what he needs to at all times, and in the end, that will be what gets him far.

Daisy

     Everyone's favorite horse girl Daisy is quite the happy person for being the last female Contender at the final 14. 

     She's got her man Shaun right by her side, and even though she is being targeted hard by Andy, she's in no real danger. In the words of Dave, Andy is not a snake anyone needs to be worried about. He's more see through than the air he breathes and if he comes near her Shaun will bury him into the next week (after Dave goes). 

     Socially, she's a bit aggressive in challenges, but everyone still seems to enjoy talking to her. Apparently she didn't get along with the other Contender women, which is a bit of an issue, but, they're all gone now so does it really matter? 

     Strategically, she's not even going to try hiding her strong bond with Shaun, and that's fine for her. It isn't just Matty who wants to eat the horse. When push comes to shove, Shaun will go before her, and with Shaun gone, perhaps she can last a bit longer. She's orchestrated the blindside of Sammy and worked to get Sarah out, and then flipped back with zero real repercussions against her. Again, Andy can't do shit. 

     Could she win? Sure. I think that she will at least outlast Shaun, and she has a real shot at winning immunities. She's proven to be good enough at the game that she could make the right moves to win, and I think that in the end, she could win. I don't think she will, but I wouldn't count her out either.

Andy

     Harry may be a disasterclass in how to play Survivor, but Andy is inching closer and closer to that honor every episode. 

     Andy is someone who can never just take the easy way out. To Andy, there is no such thing as a "backseat". Andy will hijack the car before he lets someone else drive it for him. That is not a good thing. It was not a good thing at the final 18. It was not a good thing at the final 17. It was not a good thing at the final 16, and it was certainly not a good idea at the second fucking tribal in the game in the final 23.

      Final 23: I get splitting the vote. But the vote count was 8 to 4. What the shit? It doesn't even look like a split at that point it looks more like you tried to cut Baden's throat but slipped and messed up.

     Final 18: The coin maneuver. I'll give him credit for this: it's a good concept. Making it so that a flipper wouldn't know who to idol is a good idea. Here's the issue: Andy basically went up to his alliance, told them all "I don't trust you with who to vote, let me 'randomly' decide at tribal by flipping a coin and then whoever the coin decides goes!" Now, to the Contenders, who seemed to be quite fragmented on their OG tribe, that just shows that Andy can't trust them, therefore why should they trust him? Why should fucking Andy of all people have to be the one who knows the boot? Why can't he trust us?

     Final 17: The guy claims to be a superfan, no, an "ultrafan", which, sure, whatever, I don't know what that means but you do you Andy! However, would an "ultrafan" really be dumb enough to just say that he wanted Sarah out when she was 5 feet behind him? The guy is sloppy as shit and he could have been fucked if that didn't happen so late in the day.

     Final 16: Ok, so you want Daisy out because you're closer with Shaun. Sure, not a bad idea. But, and I may be referencing stuff from his posts after some episodes so if you don't remember this this is where it came from, why in the bloody hell would anyone think that taking out their number one would make them want to work with them?!? What the hell! And then you go up to Luke and Dave, with 1 minute left (Baden confirmed this on Reddit I believe), and then give them the "realest conversation they've had?" WHAT THE FUCK? If you're going to try and pull off this insane plan, do not wait until the literal last minute. Do you know why they didn't trust you? BECAUSE YOU GAVE THEM ONE MINUTE TO THINK ON IT BEFORE TRIBAL DAMNIT ANDY! And then, the next episode, he's pissed. Why? Because they didn't vote for Daisy. After he also lied about Hannah getting votes? Did he not say that Luke and Dave were getting the votes like what the fuck? Agh it was just... infuriating. Andy you're a great guy but what the shit?

     Andy does not have long in this game. He's blatantly throwing the next challenge apparently, and is so see through that let's be real- he's gone early merge at the latest. There's honestly a nonzero chance Dave just idols him out here. He's flipped on everyone, has no allies, and is pretty much dead man walking. Hell, I could even see him being booted after Dave and before Luke...

Shaun

      The local horse is actually one hell of a player.

      The Contenders on the New Champions tribe were a bit of a mess. They were turning on each other, and letting Dave and Lukey run the show. Shaun gets there and sorts that shit out immediately. It's honestly quite impressive. There are not too many people like that: true leaders who can just walk into a tribe and unify it right away. He turned a disaster into a mess in the blink of an eye, and I think he deserves credit for that.

     However, he isn't too great. I would say that his blind blood lust for Dave is a bit... excessive. Being blinded by revenge in Survivor is not generally what you want to do. One of the best traits to have in Survivor is the ability to adapt and get used to a new situation. When you burn a bridge so blatantly as he did, what do you do if Dave ever gets power over you again? It's over for him. Shaun has more or less entered into a death game where it's him or Dave and it's a game that needs to end quickly. 

     Unfortunately for Shaun, he's fucked. Like, very much fucked. Not only does his mortal enemy have an idol that he has 0 idea about ("Dave must be hungry!"), but he's a fucking monster physically. Again, do you remember what he did to David in that statue challenge? He just moved him without breaking a goddamn sweat! It's insane! Now, while he might not be as good at endurance due to his size, people don't care. Calling him an immunity beast is an easy label to throw on him, and why question it?

     Another thing against Shaun is the fact that Daisy exists. The local horse girl doesn't seem to be helping his game. A strong duo that everyone knows about isn't ideal, so even if he doesn't get targeted for being a jacked beast, he still has Daisy unknowingly fucking him. Even when Luigi finally gets Daisy, she still screws him over...

Luke

      Luke is without a doubt in my mind my favorite Survivor contestant ever. Not just Survivor, but Big Brother, Amazing Race and even The Genius. He's an amazing soul, and you can bet your mother's life I was happy to see the King of the Jungle back in the game!

     His game so far has been quite amazing. In the minority early on, but worked hard and got Ross with them for the flip against Susie, and has been killing it ever since!

     His social game is probably the best out of all of the players left in the game. Not only did ET say on the way out that he wanted Luke to win, even though Luke was against him, but Janine threw to save him and Dave because of Luke. They valued Luke so much that they threw to keep him in! It's insane how much pull this guy has. He even seems to be making bonds with Baden in the background too.

     The only thing, or in this case, person, who stands to end Luke's game premerge is David. If the Champions so wished, if they split the vote on Dave and Luke, Luke is fucked. I'm really worried that could be the case, but at the same time, no one believes Shaun has an idol. Plus, they already split against a former Contender before, and they could easily split the vote on Andy too. 

     If he makes merge, I don't know what would happen. The guy is a supermassive threat. Gigantic. If he makes the end, he wins unanimously almost certainly. I think that his best chances at the merge are if David, Shaun, Janine, Harry, or Andy are there. The more of those 5 that are at the merge, the more potential shields to hide behind as he gets himself into a better position. He's got the skills, he's got the experience, all he needs now is to get off that tribe before David makes it his final resting place.

David

     What a fucking trip this man's game has been. Ross may have been a breakout star this season, but David is also a massive breakout character and player. 

      Like Luke, he was also in the minority, and while Luke pulled in Ross, Dave pulled in Abbey. From there, they formed the real Champions majority against Stephen and his army of athletes. Unlike Luke, he let this power get to his head. David got cocky. Quickly. He became controlling, overbearing, and more of a "do as I say" type of leader.

     And then there's the elephant in the room, the move that has had major ripple effects on this whole season: the idol switch. The idol switch was an... interesting move. The best case scenario is that Shaun gets blindsided with the idol in his pocket before a swap. Sadly, the Champions lost every immunity after that happened. So, there goes that hope!

     Eventually, David became presented with a choice: come clean to Shaun, or continue to tell him the idol is real and hope he falls for it. He chose the latter. I think that especially when Shaun got to the New Champion's beach, he needed to switch to the first option, like, immediately. 

     It's not an easy thing to do, telling someone you deceived them. "Hey I gave you a fake idol by the way" is not generally a good conversation starter. I'd rather have some idiot feed me one word answers than be openly betrayed like that. 

     This may sound ridiculous, but I really do think that the best possible thing for Dave to have done is to come clean to Shaun and to give him the idol the second he came back. Why? Well, put it like this: is Shaun that stupid? Is Shaun someone who would really fall for a trick that badly? Yeah, he gives up the idol. But this is for long term survival, not short term. David needs whatever allies he can get, and if he can snap Shaun out of his Android 16-esque blood lust for Goku, that would be worth the idol. Plus, Shaun has free reign to sell Janine out, and say that "Yeah Janine wouldn't give me the idol so I panicked and gave you the fake." It puts the blame off of you, shows you still want to work with him, and hopefully keeps the alliance tight.

     It's too late for that. David is now at war with Shaun, and it will only end with one of them going. Even Andy, someone who trusted him before, is against him. But, unlike Dirty Harry, he actually has an ace up his sleeve. He found the idol from the theater, and has managed to convince everyone he doesn't have it. A true Oscar (the award, not the fake son) worthy performance.

     So where does he go from here? Well, I see two options: One, gun for Andy, two: gun for Shaun. Why Andy over Shaun? Well, if the merge is likely next, Shaun is a much better meat shield, and there's a good chance the Champions would at least help him take out Shaun. Going for Shaun is obvious: that guy is digging Dave's grave as I speak. 

     The other thing David needs to do is get one Contender solidly with him. He does that, and a split is no longer possible, which opens the door super wide for him to truly turn the tides on the tribe. Even if it is only one tribal, even if he doesn't take out Andy or Shaun and instead axes, say, Daisy, surviving with him and Luke intact is super important.

     And now we bring ourselves to the question at hand: can David win? Maybe. If he makes the end, he may be a villain, but he's a great guy, played a great game, the issue is getting there. If he makes the merge, he's a huge target. His allies would not hesitate to cut him, and he is just a massive shield. It would take a miracle for him to survive, but who knows? Crazier shit has happened

Winner Likelihood Rankings

Unlike the rest of this piece, I'll keep this brief. 1 is most likely, 14 is least likely

1. Pia

2. Baden

3. Ross

4. Abbey

5. Daisy

6. Luke

7. John

8. Janine

9. Shaun

10. Andy

11. Matty

12. David

13. Simon

14. Harry

     And that, is everything. I might write more about this season later, and if I do, I'll be sure to keep you all updated!